Last month, the popular bitcoin analyst and creator of Plan B, a stock-to-flow price model, explained that he believes “the bulls are not over.” On 6 August, Plan B is still showing confidence in its forecast and has confirmed its message from the previous month. Meanwhile, there has been a surge in the bitcoin price and the bitcoin price reached a high of $45,355 on Sunday.
Plan B shows confidence in past forecast while bitcoin price taps fresh high
bitcoin (B T c) has been tearing down lately and oddly enough to confront regulatory uncertainty in the United States. B T c It has gained over 11% during the past seven days and the 30-day data shows that the major crypto asset is up 31% against the US Dollar. $39,734 per share since the opening trading session on August 5 B T cThe crypto asset is up 12.97% in three days. In addition, following swift action, a discredited pseudonym was used by the Twitter account. @ 100 trillion, Also known as “Plan B”, it seems the bitcoin bull run is not over.
Bitcoin.com News has reported on Plan B’s approach on various occasions since it began documenting its popular stock-to-flow. (S2F) value model Back in March 2019. Secret Analyst has also updated the S2F price model to a stock-to-flow cross-asset (S2FX) model.
On June 1, Bitcoin.com News reported how Plan B thought the S2FX model was still intact and claimed that it was starting to look like 2013. Many analysts have compared this run to the 2013 bull market because during that time B T c Saw a double top.
On August 1, Plan B explained that B T cRealized capitalization was on the rise and in his opinion, things were looking sharp. “Bitcoin’s Real Limit Is Raising Again,” Plan B Said. “Realized cap is the average price at which all 18.77M B T c The last time a transaction was made (calculated on all UTXOs). Also, some sellers sell at a profit at this time (not a loss like in May and June). IMO it’s fast.”
Number of bitcoins at press time (B T c) in circulation today 18,779,913 B T c And reward halving is expected to happen only in 1,008 days from now. That time, B T cThe issuance will become more rare, as the block reward of 6.25 coins per block will be reduced to 3.125 coins per block after that.
Plan B’s S2F or S2FX is all about scarcity and essentially the low issuance rate of crypto assets and should increase the value of scarcity B T c over the long term. Basically stock-to-flow measures the abundance or scarcity when it comes B T cLong term issuance rate. current amount of B T c (stock) is simply divided by the number of bitcoins produced (flow) on an annual basis.
in plan B original thesis They also published a chart of other products such as precious metals (gold and silver), explaining how the S2F model works with various commodities. Gold has historically shown the highest S2F ratio, at least in the case of commodities like precious metals.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, has a very high S2F ratio, which means that in the long term, the value of the crypto asset tends to remain intact or rise with significant demand. In 2019, when Plan B published its original model, they stated that “gold and silver, which are completely different markets, are in line with SF’s bitcoin model values.” The analyst also emphasized that “a power law is indicative of a relationship.” The pseudonymous analyst said:
The model predicts a bitcoin market cap of $1trn after the next halving in May 2020, which translates to a bitcoin price of $55,000.
Plan B: ‘August will close above $47K’
Price after May 2020 B T c The per unit area jumped over $55K and the market valuation also exceeded a trillion dollars in total value. price since B T c There has been a substantial drop on two occasions but Plan B is still convincing.
Plan B on August 6th retweeted He published an old tweet on July 2 and said: “Just to reaffirm this message from last month.” At the time, Plan B said that they believed the bullish phase was not over and today it appears that their old statement from the first week of July still holds true. plan b Said:
My onchain data (color overlay in chart below) tells me that this bull is not over and 64K was not top. corresponds to [the] S2F(x) model. Also my floor indicator (not based on S2F) says we will not go below $47K close to August.
Plan B clarified that the floor estimator was not based on S2F when asked by a person analyst Question. “So the price will go above 47k in August? Is that what you mean?” A Twitter account called “Crypto Storm” asked. “August will close above 47k. Ps, this floor estimator is not based on S2F,” Plan B replied.
What do you think about the current assessment of Plan B? Are you a fan of S2F or S2FX value models? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comment section below.
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